The Wisdom Of The Crowd – How We Are Smarter & Stronger Together

Waiting in the sun for giants.

In an election year, people might disagree about who makes the best candidate. But you don’t hear much argument on the merits of democracy: that millions of average people can together make a wise decision.”

– Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist.

What Is The Wisdom Of The Crowd?

According to Wikipedia, [which is itself an excellent example of the wisdom of the crowd]:

The wisdom of the crowd is the process of taking into account the collective opinion of a group of individuals rather than a single expert to answer a question. A large group’s aggregated answers to questions involving quantity estimation, general world knowledge, and spatial reasoning has generally been found to be as good as, and often better than, the answer given by any of the individuals within the group. An intuitive and often-cited explanation for this phenomenon is that there is idiosyncratic noise associated with each individual judgment, and taking the average over a large number of responses will go some way toward canceling the effect of this noise.”

The following video shows how the wisdom of the crowds has been implemented:

Can The Wisdom Of The Crowds Be Extended Past The Definition Provided Above?

I’ve been studying nature recently… starlings in the area around Edinburgh, in the moors of England… at night they come together and they create one of the most spectacular things in all of nature, and it’s called a murmuration… this thing has a function; it protects the birds. You can see on the right here, there is a predator being chased away by the collective power of the birds. Apparently this is a frightening thing if you are a predator of starlings. And, there’s leadership, but there’s no one leader.

Now is this some kind of fanciful analogy, or can we actually learn something from this?

.. this is a huge collaboration, it’s an openness, it’s a sharing of all kinds of information, not just about location and trajectory and danger and so on, but about food sources. And, there’s a real sense of interdependence, [that] the individual birds somehow understand that their interests are in the interest of the collective. Perhaps like we should understand that business can’t succeed in a world that’s failing.

Well, I look at this thing and I get a lot of hope. I think about the kids today in the Arab Spring and you see something like this that’s underway. And imagine, just consider this idea if you would, what if we could connect ourselves in this world through a vast network of air and glass? Could we go beyond just sharing information and knowledge, could we start to share our intelligence?

Could we create some kind of collective intelligence that goes beyond an individual or a group or a team, to create perhaps some kind of consciousness on a global basis? Well, if we could do this, we could attack some big problems in the world.

And I look at this thing and I, I don’t know, I get a lot of hope that maybe this smaller networked, open world that our kids inherit, might be a better one. And that this new age of networked intelligence can be an age of promise fulfilled and of peril unrequited. Let’s do this. Thank you.”

– Don Tapscott, business executive, author, consultant, and speaker specializing in business strategy.


Image: “Waiting in the sun for giants.” by Simon Harrod on Flickr.

Israel & Iran: A Love Story? [TED Talk]

Israel loves Iran

Israel loves Iran

They want to respond. They want to say the same thing. So… now it’s communication. It’s a two-way story. It’s Israelis and Iranians sending the same message, one to each other.”

– Ronny Edry, Israeli graphic designer

Given the contentious nature of relations that exist between Israel and Iran, it is a wonder that one man, Ronny Edry, could start a whole new dialogue between the peoples, simply by creating one poster on Facebook. That poster [the image above] said:

Iranians, we will never bomb your country, We [heart] You.”

The following quotes are from Edry’s TED talk. In it he details how that poster led to many more posters, conversations, and the revelation of love between Israelis, Iranians, and many others:

On March 14, this year, I posted this poster on Facebook. This is an image of me and my daughter holding the Israeli flag. I will try to explain to you about the context of why and when I posted. A few days ago, I was sitting waiting on the line at the grocery store, and the owner and one of the clients were talking to each other, and the owner was explaining to the client that we’re going to get 10,000 missiles on Israel. And the client was saying, no, it’s 10,000 a day.

(“10,000 missiles”) This is the context. This is where we are now in Israel. We have this war with Iran coming for 10 years now, and we have people, you know, afraid. It’s like every year it’s the last minute that we can do something about the war with Iran. It’s like, if we don’t act now, it’s too late forever, for 10 years now.”

So I come to the computer and I start looking on (after posting his initial poster to Facebook), and suddenly I see many people talking to me, most of them I don’t know, and a few of them from Iran, which is — What? Because you have to understand, in Israel we don’t talk with people from Iran. We don’t know people from Iran. It’s like, on Facebook, you have friends only from — it’s like your neighbors are your friends on Facebook. And now people from Iran are talking to me.

So I start answering this girl, and she’s telling me she saw the poster and she asked her family to come, because they don’t have a computer, she asked her family to come to see the poster, and they’re all sitting in the living room crying. So I’m like, whoa. I ask my wife to come, and I tell her, you have to see that. People are crying, and she came, she read the text, and she started to cry. And everybody’s crying now.

So I don’t know what to do, so my first reflex, as a graphic designer, is, you know, to show everybody what I’d just seen, and people started to see them and to share them, and that’s how it started.”

So I went to my neighbors and friends and students and I just asked them, give me a picture, I will make you a poster. And that’s how it started. And that’s how, really, it’s unleashed, because suddenly people from Facebook, friends and others, just understand that they can be part of it. It’s not just one dude making one poster, it’s — we can be part of it, so they start sending me pictures and ask me, ‘Make me a poster. Post it. Tell the Iranians we from Israel love you too.’ It became, you know, at some point it was really, really intense. I mean, so many pictures, so I asked friends to come, graphic designers most of them, to make posters with me, because I didn’t have the time. It was a huge amount of pictures. So for a few days, that’s how my living room was.”

The day after, Iranians started to respond with their own posters. They have graphic designers. What? (Laughter) Crazy, crazy. So you can see they are still shy, they don’t want to show their faces, but they want to spread the message. They want to respond. They want to say the same thing. So. And now it’s communication. It’s a two-way story. It’s Israelis and Iranians sending the same message, one to each other.”

What Causes Corruption In Today’s Society? A Few Powerful Men, Or The Self-Interest Of All?

What Causes Corruption In Today's Society? A Few Powerful Men, Or The Self-Interest Of All?

Since the beginning of civilization those in power have successfully restricted the interests of the majority by regulating their values, by controlling resources through money, not to mention controlling the very processes that exist to challenge them.

Is it a conspiracy? Do such powerful men meet in dark rooms and work to figure out how to keep their power? Actually, no not as much as you might think. You see the hilarious thing about all of this is that such a process of manipulation is actually self-generating, justified in a step-by-step manner with basic self-interest guiding the whole way.

The real corruption is not occurring in back room meetings or at the docks. The real power resides in how you, the public, actually perpetuate, condone and support the very systems that suppress you.”

Change Will Come By Rewarding & Reinforcing Values Of Mutual Responsibility

Until the social premise itself, and hence the fundamental psychological drivers of our economy – balance, scarcity, narrow self-interest, exploitation and competition – until those are altered to the extent that the system begins to reward and reinforce collaboration, human and ecological balance, efficiency and sustainability, nothing is going to really change.

In a sociological condition where everything is based on advantage over others, what we call ‘corruption’ today isn’t actually corruption at all. It’s just ‘business as usual.’ I mean, seriously, what did you people expect? In an economy where everything is for sale by the very ethic inherent underscored by the false notion that we possibly can’t work together intelligently to benefit all, no level of supposed ‘corruption’ should surprise any of us.”

–Peter Joseph

Connected, But Alone [Ted Talk]

modern conversation

 

modern conversation

“I’m still excited by technology, says Sherry Turkle in her TED talk, “but I believe, and I’m here to make the case, that we’re letting it take us places that we don’t want to go.” Turkle is a psychologist and author most recently of the book, Alone Together.

Over the past 15 years, I’ve studied technologies of mobile communication and I’ve interviewed hundreds and hundreds of people, young and old, about their plugged in lives. And what I’ve found is that our little devices, those little devices in our pockets, are so psychologically powerful that they don’t only change what we do, they change who we are. Some of the things we do now with our devices are things that, only a few years ago, we would have found odd or disturbing, but they’ve quickly come to seem familiar, just how we do things.

So just to take some quick examples: People text or do email during corporate board meetings. They text and shop and go on Facebook during classes, during presentations, actually during all meetings. People talk to me about the important new skill of making eye contact while you’re texting… Parents text and do email at breakfast and at dinner while their children complain about not having their parents’ full attention. But then these same children deny each other their full attention.”

The Allure Of Connecting When You Want, How You Want, With Whom You Want

Why does this matter? It matters to me because I think we’re setting ourselves up for trouble — trouble certainly in how we relate to each other, but also trouble in how we relate to ourselves and our capacity for self-reflection. We’re getting used to a new way of being alone together. People want to be with each other, but also elsewhere — connected to all the different places they want to be. People want to customize their lives. They want to go in and out of all the places they are because the thing that matters most to them is control over where they put their attention. So you want to go to that board meeting, but you only want to pay attention to the bits that interest you. And some people think that’s a good thing. But you can end up hiding from each other, even as we’re all constantly connected to each other.”

Across the generations, I see that people can’t get enough of each other, if and only if they can have each other at a distance, in amounts they can control. I call it the Goldilocks effect: not too close, not too far, just right. But what might feel just right for that middle-aged executive can be a problem for an adolescent who needs to develop face-to-face relationships. An 18-year-old boy who uses texting for almost everything says to me wistfully, “Someday, someday, but certainly not now, I’d like to learn how to have a conversation.”

Over and over I hear, “I would rather text than talk.” And what I’m seeing is that people get so used to being short-changed out of real conversation, so used to getting by with less, that they’ve become almost willing to dispense with people altogether.”

The 3 Fantasies Of Connections Based On Technology

These days, those phones in our pockets are changing our minds and hearts because they offer us three gratifying fantasies. One, that we can put our attention wherever we want it to be; two, that we will always be heard; and three, that we will never have to be alone. And that third idea, that we will never have to be alone, is central to changing our psyches. Because the moment that people are alone, even for a few seconds, they become anxious, they panic, they fidget, they reach for a device. Just think of people at a checkout line or at a red light. Being alone feels like a problem that needs to be solved. And so people try to solve it by connecting. But here, connection is more like a symptom than a cure. It expresses, but it doesn’t solve, an underlying problem. But more than a symptom, constant connection is changing the way people think of themselves. It’s shaping a new way of being.

The best way to describe it is, I share therefore I am. We use technology to define ourselves by sharing our thoughts and feelings even as we’re having them. So before it was: I have a feeling, I want to make a call. Now it’s: I want to have a feeling, I need to send a text. The problem with this new regime of “I share therefore I am” is that, if we don’t have connection, we don’t feel like ourselves. We almost don’t feel ourselves. So what do we do? We connect more and more. But in the process, we set ourselves up to be isolated.

How do you get from connection to isolation? You end up isolated if you don’t cultivate the capacity for solitude, the ability to be separate, to gather yourself. Solitude is where you find yourself so that you can reach out to other people and form real attachments. When we don’t have the capacity for solitude, we turn to other people in order to feel less anxious or in order to feel alive. When this happens, we’re not able to appreciate who they are. It’s as though we’re using them as spare parts to support our fragile sense of self. We slip into thinking that always being connected is going to make us feel less alone. But we’re at risk, because actually it’s the opposite that’s true. If we’re not able to be alone, we’re going to be more lonely. And if we don’t teach our children to be alone, they’re only going to know how to be lonely.

So, How Can Better Relationships Be Formed?

I see some first steps. Start thinking of solitude as a good thing. Make room for it. Find ways to demonstrate this as a value to your children. Create sacred spaces at home — the kitchen, the dining room — and reclaim them for conversation. Do the same thing at work. At work, we’re so busy communicating that we often don’t have time to think, we don’t have time to talk, about the things that really matter. Change that. Most important, we all really need to listen to each other, including to the boring bits. Because it’s when we stumble or hesitate or lose our words that we reveal ourselves to each other.

Technology is making a bid to redefine human connection — how we care for each other, how we care for ourselves — but it’s also giving us the opportunity to affirm our values and our direction. I’m optimistic. We have everything we need to start. We have each other. And we have the greatest chance of success if we recognize our vulnerability. That we listen when technology says it will take something complicated and promises something simpler.

So in my work, I hear that life is hard, relationships are filled with risk. And then there’s technology — simpler, hopeful, optimistic, ever-young. It’s like calling in the cavalry. An ad campaign promises that online and with avatars, you can “Finally, love your friends love your body, love your life, online and with avatars.” We’re drawn to virtual romance, to computer games that seem like worlds, to the idea that robots, robots, will someday be our true companions. We spend an evening on the social network instead of going to the pub with friends.

But our fantasies of substitution have cost us. Now we all need to focus on the many, many ways technology can lead us back to our real lives, our own bodies, our own communities, our own politics, our own planet. They need us. Let’s talk about how we can use digital technology, the technology of our dreams, to make this life the life we can love.”

Interdependence: A Property Inherent In Nature

The major problems in the world are the result of the difference between how nature works and the way people think.

–Gregory Bateson, English anthropologist, social scientist, linguist, visual anthropologist, semiotician and cyberneticist whose work intersected that of many other fields.

When one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the world.

–John Muir, naturalist, author, and early advocate of preservation of wilderness in the United States.